The Dollar

The dollar was initially softer against the euro and yen in the Thursday session following soft US economic reports earlier in the morning. Weekly jobless claims increased to 371k, versus 365k in the previous week. The NY Fed manufacturing survey deteriorated to a reading of minus 3.23 in May, versus 0.63 in April. Meanwhile, industrial output in April declined by more than expected, posting a 0.7% decline versus a 0.3% increase while capacity utilization fell to 79.7% from 80.5% a month earlier. The May Philadelphia Fed business index improved to -15.6, better than estimates for an improvement to -19.0 from -24.9 from April.

Thu
May 15

GMT
00:30 AM
AUD AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation (MAY) Low 11.2%


GMT
01:30 AM
AUD AUD Average Weekly Wages (QoQ) (FEB) Low 0.6%


GMT
01:30 AM
AUD AUD Average Weekly Wages (YoY) (FEB) Low 4.7%


GMT
01:30 AM
AUD AUD RBA Foreign Exchange Transaction (Australian dollar) (APR) Low A$295M


AUD AUD Reserve Bank Asst. Governor Debelle Speech in South Africa Low


GMT
04:00 AM
JPY JPY Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (APR) Low -17.8% Show


GMT
05:45 AM
CHF CHF SECO Consumer Climate (APR) Low 10.0 14.0


GMT
06:00 AM
EUR EUR Germany Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QOQ) (1Q P) High 0.7% 0.3% Show


GMT
06:00 AM
EUR EUR Germany Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY) (1Q P) High 1.8% 1.8% Show


GMT
06:00 AM
EUR EUR Germany Gross Domestic Product n.s.a (YoY) (1Q P) High 1.4% 1.6%


GMT
06:00 AM
EUR EUR Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) (APR F) High -0.2% -0.2% Show


GMT
06:00 AM
EUR EUR Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR F) High 2.4% 2.4% Show


GMT
06:00 AM
EUR EUR Germany Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (MoM) (APR F) High -0.3% 0.5% Show


GMT
06:00 AM
EUR EUR Germany Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY) (APR F) High 2.6% 2.6%


GMT
06:45 AM
EUR EUR France Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q P) High 0.5% 0.4% Show


GMT
06:45 AM
EUR EUR France Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (1Q P) High 1.9% 2.1% Show


GMT
08:00 AM
EUR EUR European Central Bank Publishes Monthly Report (MAY) Medium


GMT
09:00 AM
EUR EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (1Q A) High 0.5% 0.4% Show


GMT
09:00 AM
EUR EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (1Q A) High 1.9% 2.2% Show


GMT
09:00 AM
EUR EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (MoM) (APR) High 0.3% 1.0% Show


GMT
09:00 AM
EUR EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR) High 3.3% 3.6% Show


GMT
09:00 AM
EUR EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (APR) High 2.0% 2.0% Show


GMT
10:30 AM
AUD AUD Reserve Bank Governor Stevens Speech in Sydney Medium


GMT
11:40 AM
EUR EUR European Central Bank's Trichet Speaks in Vienna Medium


GMT
12:30 PM
CAD CAD Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) (MAR) Low -0.5% 1.6% Show


GMT
12:30 PM
USD USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAY 10) Low 370K 365K


GMT
12:30 PM
USD USD Continuing Claims (MAY 3) Low 3035K 3020K


GMT
12:30 PM
USD USD Empire Manufacturing (MAY) High 0.0 0.6 Show


GMT
13:00 PM
USD USD Net Long-term TIC Flows (MAR) High $62.5B $72.5B Show


GMT
13:00 PM
USD USD Total Net TIC Flows (MAR) High $64.1B Show


GMT
13:00 PM
EUR EUR European Central Bank's Mersch Speaks in Vienna Low


GMT
13:15 PM
USD USD Industrial Production (APR) Low -0.3% 0.3% Show


GMT
13:15 PM
USD USD Capacity Utilization (APR) Low 80.1% 80.5% Show


GMT
13:15 PM
USD USD Fed's Evans Gives Welcoming Remarks at Banking Conference Low


GMT
13:30 PM
USD USD Fed's Bernanke Speaks on Banking Risk Management in Chicago Low


GMT
14:00 PM
USD USD Philadelphia Fed. (MAY) High -19.0 -24.9 Show


GMT
14:00 PM
USD USD U.S. Treasury's Nason Speaks in Washington About Education Low


GMT
14:50 PM
USD USD New York Fed's Dudley, BofA's Price Speak at Chicago Fed Panel Low


GMT
17:00 PM
USD USD NAHB Housing Market Index (May) Low 20.0 20.0 Show


GMT
21:00 PM
EUR EUR ECB Council Member Liikanen Speaks in Brussels Low


GMT
22:45 PM
NZD NZD Producer Prices - Inputs (QoQ) (1Q) Medium 1.3%


GMT
22:45 PM
NZD NZD Producer Prices - Outputs (QoQ) (1Q) Medium 1.5%


GMT
23:00 PM
USD USD Fed's Mishkin Speaks on Asset Price Bubbles in Philadelphia Medium


GMT
23:50 PM
JPY JPY Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q P) High 0.6% 0.9% Show


GMT
23:50 PM
JPY JPY Gross Domestic Product Annualized (1Q P) High 2.5% 3.5% Show


GMT
23:50 PM
JPY JPY Nominal Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q P) High 0.3% 0.2% Show


GMT
23:50 PM
JPY JPY Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) (1Q P) Low -1.5% -1.3% Show

Fri
May 16

GMT
04:30 AM
JPY JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (MAR F) Medium -3.1% -3.1% Show


GMT
04:30 AM
JPY JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (MAR F) Medium -0.4% Show


GMT
04:30 AM
JPY JPY Capacity Utilization (MoM) (MAR F) Low 1.8% Show


GMT
05:00 AM
JPY JPY Consumer Confidence (APR) Low 37.8 37.0 Show


GMT
05:00 AM
JPY JPY Consumer Confidence Households (APR) Low 36.7 Show


GMT
06:00 AM
JPY JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (APR F) Low Show


GMT
06:00 AM
EUR EUR EU 25 New Car Registrations (APR) Low -9.5%


GMT
06:45 AM
EUR EUR France Wages (QoQ) (1Q P) Medium 0.8% 0.3%


GMT
06:45 AM
EUR EUR France Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (1Q P) High 0.3% 0.3%


GMT
07:15 AM
CHF CHF Adjusted Real Retail Sales (YoY) (MAR) High 3.0% 3.3% Show


GMT
08:00 AM
EUR EUR Italy Trade Balance (Total) (Euros) (MAR) High -860.0M -408.0M Show


GMT
08:00 AM
EUR EUR Italy Trade Balance EU (Euros) (MAR) High 377.5M 905.0M Show


GMT
08:15 AM
EUR EUR ECB's Constancio Speaks at Conference in Lisbon Low


GMT
09:00 AM
EUR EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance (Euro) (MAR) High 2.5B 0.8B Show


GMT
09:00 AM
EUR EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance s.a. (Euro) (MAR) High 2.1B Show


GMT
12:30 PM
CAD CAD New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (MAR) Low 0.1% -3.2% Show


GMT
12:30 PM
USD USD Housing Starts (APR) Medium 935K 947K Show


GMT
12:30 PM
USD USD Building Permits (APR) Low 910K 927K Show


GMT
14:00 PM
USD USD U. of Michigan Confidence (MAY P) Medium 62.5 62.6 Show


GMT
15:20 PM
USD USD Fed's Braunstein, Goldman's Hatzius Speak on Mortgage Market Low


GMT
16:00 PM
USD USD Paulson Speaks in Washington on U.S. Housing, Credit Markets Medium


GMT
17:00 PM
EUR EUR Bundesbank's Remsperger Holds Speech in Bad Homburg Low
UK Jobless Claims Change
0.0k 7.2K
Ecomonic Slowdown Led Companies To Increase Job Cuts




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BLOOMBERG

Dollar Climbs on Speculation Fed to Halt Cuts, Losses Overdone
May 12 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar rose against the yen on speculated the Federal Reserve won't cut interest rates next month.
The U.S. is not going to have as deep a downturn as everyone initially portrayed.''
Fed Rate Outlook
``It's doubtful that the Fed can afford to cut more,'' said Benedikt Germanier, an analyst at UBS AG in Stamford, Connecticut, in an interview on Bloomberg Television. ``We are short on the euro-dollar. Our three-month forecast is $1.47.''
Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said in a speech today in Illinois that the central bank's current interest-rate stance is ``appropriate.''
The Dollar Index traded on ICE futures in New York, which tracks the dollar against currencies of six trading partners, rose to 73.214 today, from 73.050 on May 9. It dropped to a record of 70.698 on March 17. The dollar strengthened 0.6 percent to 1.0477 versus the Swiss franc.
The U.S. currency will increase to $1.50 per euro and trade at 102 yen by Dec. 31, according to the median forecast of 40 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
A Commerce Department report tomorrow will probably show U.S. retail sales fell 0.2 percent in April, following a 0.2 percent gain the prior month, according to the median forecast of 65 economists in a separate Bloomberg survey.
The dollar climbed 0.8 percent to 103.66 yen at 11:01 a.m. in New York, from 102.87 on May 9. It was the biggest gain since May 2. The euro increased 0.9 percent to 160.68 yen, from 159.21 yen, the largest one-day advance since April 16. The dollar traded at $1.5496 per euro, compared with $1.5482.
Traders in the futures market have turned bullish on the dollar versus the euro for the first time since December 2005. The difference in the number of wagers by hedge funds and other large speculators on an advance in the greenback versus the euro, known as net longs, was 21,315 on April 29, figures from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in Washington show. There were net-short positions in each of the previous 123 weeks. Net longs were trimmed to 12,512 on May 6.

GBPUSD

GBP USD is in an downtrend directed by 1H exponential moving averages. Bollinger bands are parallel and form the trend indicating a bearish pressure on GBP USD. The downtrend should continue on 1.9400 (80 pips) support.